My New Blog

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Stephen L. Smith, Manager

A.C.L. Mortgage Services, L.L.C.

steve@acl-mortgage.com

 

30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast

30 Yr Conventional Mortgage FHLMC Contract Rate. Percent Average of Month.
Month Date Forecast
Value
50%
Correct +/-
80%
Correct +/-
0 Nov 2011 3.990 0.00 0.00
1 Dec 2011 4.05 0.05 0.11
2 Jan 2012 4.11 0.06 0.14
3 Feb 2012 4.15 0.08 0.17
4 Mar 2012 4.21 0.08 0.19
5 Apr 2012 4.27 0.09 0.20
6 May 2012 4.39 0.10 0.22
7 Jun 2012 4.51 0.10 0.23
8 Jul 2012 4.63 0.11 0.24
Updated Wednesday, December 07, 2011

All forecasts are provided AS IS, and FFC disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.


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30 Year Conventional Mortgage Interest Rate

Past Trend Present Value & Future Projection
Mortgage Interest Rate
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Current Money Rates

December 12, 2011 (Close of Day)

Indicator

Value

Prime Rate 3.25
30 Year T-Bond 3.05
10 Year T-Note 2.02
91 Day T-Bill 0.01
Fed Funds 0.07
London EuroDollar 1 Month 0.35
Mortgage Rate 30 Year 3.99

Posted by Stephen L. Smith on December 13th, 2011 12:10 PMPost a Comment (0)

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December 2nd, 2011 11:54 AM
Check out the information below.  What is your opinion?  I welcome your comments.

Stephen L. Smith, Manager

A.C.L. Mortgage Services, L.L.C.

steve@acl-mortgage.com

 

30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast

Month Date Forecast
Value
50%
Correct +/-
80%
Correct +/-
0 Oct 2011 4.070 0.00 0.00
1 Nov 2011 4.00 0.05 0.11
2 Dec 2011 4.05 0.06 0.14
3 Jan 2012 4.11 0.08 0.17
4 Feb 2012 4.15 0.08 0.19
5 Mar 2012 4.21 0.09 0.20
6 Apr 2012 4.27 0.10 0.22
7 May 2012 4.39 0.10 0.23
8 Jun 2012 4.51 0.11 0.24

Updated Thursday, December 1, 2011

All forecasts are provided AS IS, and FFC disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.


30 Year Conventional Mortgage Interest Rate

Past Trend Present Value & Future Projection

Mortgage Interest Rate

Other Links of Interest:

Current Money Rates

December 01, 2011 (Close of Day)

Indicator

Value

Prime Rate 3.25
30 Year T-Bond 3.09
10 Year T-Note 2.10
91 Day T-Bill 0.01
Fed Funds 0.10
London EuroDollar 1 Month 0.35
Mortgage Rate 30 Year 4.00


Posted by Stephen L. Smith on December 2nd, 2011 11:54 AMPost a Comment (0)

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November 7th, 2011 10:48 AM

Check out the information below.  What is your opinion?  I welcome your comments.

Stephen L. Smith, Manager

A.C.L. Mortgage Services, L.L.C.

steve@acl-mortgage.com

 

Rates Hold Steady After Jobs Report
Nov 4 2011, 2:25PM

Despite earlier market volatility surrounding the important Employment Situation Report this morning, things have evened out into the afternoon and Mortgage Rates are essentially unchanged from yesterday's levels.  Some lenders still have pricing set slightly worse than yesterday's while others are slightly improved.  The net effect is someone of a consolidation around the 4.0% Best-Execution level.

Today's Rates: 

  • BESTEXECUTION 30YR FIXED -   Centered on 4.0%
  • FHA/VA - 3.75, fewer 3.875%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%-3.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  low 3% range, huge variations from lender to lender.

Today's Guidance: The jobs report is out of the way, which is a good thing for mortgage rates in the sense that it helps decrease volatility.  But there's still a few potential hiccups left in terms of finding out exactly what is going on with Greece and the Euro zone drama.  There's a vote scheduled to take place later on parliament's level of confidence in George Papandreou's leadership.  Depending on how that goes, there could be implications as to Greece's acceptance of the austerity terms that allow it to receive financial aid and avoid a more dire version of the default that many already see as having happened.  Phew...  That's a whole lot of nonsense, right?  We think so too, but can't overlook the fact that our domestic market movements continue to hang on every little headline that comes out of that situation.  As such, "stuff that happens later today in Europe" could have an impact on Monday's rate sheets in the US.  With rates at 4.0% today, risks outweigh rewards for now in terms of floating. 


Posted by Stephen L. Smith on November 7th, 2011 10:48 AMPost a Comment (0)

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June 22nd, 2011 11:02 AM

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Stephen L. Smith, Manager

A.C.L. Mortgage Services, L.L.C.

steve@acl-mortgage.com

 

June 8, 2011, 5:11 PM ET

Why Bill Gross insists interest rates are going up!!!

Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, says the differences between the U.S. and Japanese economies show why interest rates here have nowhere to go but up.

Speaking at the Morningstar Investor Conference, Gross noted that U.S. Treasuries are yielding 1.55%. 'Compare it to the Japanese market which we know is a moribund, dead, lost-decade kind of economy,' Gross said, 'and the Japanese bond yields .8%. Here we have the US with a dynamic economy, … with respect to their Treasury departments, the U.S. and Japan are just 80 or 90 basis points apart.'

'Unless we cataclysmically black-hole our economy and drive it far into further recession, it’s hard to see how we could drive [domestic] interest rates much lower.'

Bond rates fell Wednesday on continuing fears of a slowdown in the U.S. economy following downbeat comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday.  Yields on 10-year Treasurys 10-YEAR fell below 3%,  while those on the 2-year note 2-YEAR flirted with their all-time lows, set last November.

Gross has been an outspoken bear on U.S. Treasurys in recent months, arguing that they don’t reward investors enough for the risk they carry."

-Chuck Jaffe


Posted by Stephen L. Smith on June 22nd, 2011 11:02 AMPost a Comment (0)

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May 6th, 2011 2:53 PM

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Stephen L. Smith, Manager

A.C.L. Mortgage Services, L.L.C.

steve@acl-mortgage.com

Mortgage rates plunge

Mortgage rates fell this week as investors sought safety, amid concerns of global instability and the still-weak economy.

Mortgage rates for May 4, 2011
Find the best mortgage rates in your area.

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 7 basis points this week, to 4.88 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.35 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 5.12 percent; four weeks ago, it was 5.08 percent.

The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 9 basis points, to 4.05 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 13 basis points, to 3.56 percent.

 

Weekly national mortgage survey

Results of Bankrate.com's May 4, 2011, weekly national survey of large lenders and the effect on monthly payments for a $165,000 loan:

  30-year fixed 15-year fixed 5-year ARM
This week's rate: 4.88% 4.05% 3.56%
Change from last week: -0.07 -0.09 -0.13
Monthly payment: $873.69 $1,224.62 $746.46
Change from last week: -$7.03 -$7.47 -$12.07
 
What would the monthly payment be for you? Use Bankrate's mortgage calculator to find out.
 

The adjustable rates fell more than expected this week because one of the lenders surveyed by Bankrate.com revamped its line of mortgage products.

After dropping for four weeks in a row, fixed rates have reached their lowest since Bankrate's Dec. 1 survey, when the benchmark 30-year fixed was 4.71 percent.

"There seems to be a lot of forces coming together to keep rates low," says Dan Green of Waterstone Mortgage in Cincinnati.

Bin Laden's death

One factor that may contribute to keeping rates low for now is the fear of potential retaliation from terrorist groups after the death of Osama bin Laden. The United States kept its official threat level unchanged after the al-Qaida leader was killed in a U.S. raid in Pakistan this week, but security at many airports and subways was heightened.

While the killing of bin Laden itself did not have a direct and immediate impact on rates, the threat of potential retaliation is likely to affect rates, Green says.

"Any unexpected event, especially terrorism threats, tends to have a very deep impact on rates," Green says. "It's bad for the stock markets and good for the bond markets," and that normally leads to lower rates.

That's because during times of political uncertainty, nervous investors tend to pull money out of riskier investments, such as the stock market, and seek safer investments such as Treasury bonds. The higher demand for bonds causes yields to drop. Mortgage rates normally follow bond yields.

"Any time you have concerns or additional threats, you'll see a higher concentration of people investing in higher-quality, safer assets," says Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree.

Bad news for Europe means good news for mortgages

Another international event that may influence mortgage rates in the United States is the Greek debt crisis, Green says.

"To me, the Greece story is having the biggest impact," in driving investors into the U.S. bond market, he says.

Greece received a bailout of $160 billion last year but continues to struggle with its debt, which represents about 150 percent of its gross domestic product.

Ireland and Portugal also are in deep financial trouble.

While the U.S. economy is bad, the U.S. debt is still perceived as a much safer investment than the debt of some European countries, Findlay says.

"When you are swimming from a shark you don't have to be the fastest swimmer," Findlay says. "You just have to be faster than the guy next to you. As bad as the U.S. economy is performing, it is still performing better than the Greek economy."

Slow economy

Michael Moskowitz, president of Equity Now in New York, says the main driver for the near-record low rates is the bad economy.

"There is no great news from anywhere," he says. "People are realizing the stimulus didn't do as much as they were hoping for. Combine that with gas prices going up; residential real estate still in decline and that puts everybody on a somber mood."

The GDP growth rate, which is one of the most important indicators of economic health, was released last week showing the rate slowed in the last quarter to 1.8 percent compared to the 3.1 percent annual growth rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Moskowitz says he he expects rates to remain low in the short term, but it's prudent to lock a low rate now.

"Friday's employment figures are going to be telling and could impact rates," he says. "I think the numbers that are coming out for April will be disappointing, but if they are better than we expect, it could bounce rates up. So don't play the market."

Green agrees.

"It's a good idea to lock," he says. "We are just one announcement away for rates to rise."



Read more: Mortgage rates plunge to 5-month low http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/rates-reach-5-month-low.aspx#ixzz1LbEy9kgb

Posted by Stephen L. Smith on May 6th, 2011 2:53 PMPost a Comment (0)

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April 26th, 2011 11:55 AM

Check out the information below.  What is your opinion?  I welcome your comments.

Stephen L. Smith, Manager

A.C.L. Mortgage Services, L.L.C.

steve@acl-mortgage.com

 

Mortgage Rates: Wait and See Mode

Best Execution mortgage rates have moved into a holding pattern ahead of a high-risk event in the week ahead. It's going to take a sustained effort, catalyzed by something such as Wednesday's FOMC Announcement (Fed Rate Decision) if Best Execution mortgage rates are to break their current barriers.   We discussed those barriers in THIS POST.

CURRENT MARKET: The "Best Execution" conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.875%. If you are looking to move down to 4.75%, this offer carries higher closing costs but could be worth it to applicants who plan on keeping their new mortgage outstanding for longer than the next 10 years.  Some lenders are beginning to price loans more aggressively because competition is tight, so scattered sightings of 4.75% are possible, but not on a wide-spread basis. Ask your loan officer to run a break-even analysis on any origination points they might require to cover permanent float down fees. On FHA/VA 30 year fixed "Best Execution" is still 4.75%.  15 year fixed conventional loans are best priced at 4.25%. Five year ARMs are still seen best priced at 3.50% but the ARM market is more stratified and there is more variation in what will be "Best-Execution" depending on your individual scenario. 

PREVIOUS GUIDANCE: Today's market movements did nothing to change the guidance we presented yesterday which suggested two possibilities.  The first possibility is that that recent improvements in rates are on hold until after next week's FOMC Announcement (Fed meeting) as past precedent suggests that bond markets may fear the Fed will indicate some sort of acceleration of rate hike prospects, which would be negative for rates.  The other possibility is that the announcement will contain no such "scary" indication, which suggests rates either return to current levels or improve.  Either way, we view floating as risky given the uncertainty of that situation in combination with the fact that the 4.875% Best-Execution rate which we know will be a hard barrier to break.  So although longer term, more flexible outlooks can still float in speculation of further gains, the upside is limited enough for shorter term outlooks to favor locking.

CURRENT GUIDANCE: The "holding pattern" continues, and borrowing costs are nearly as low as they can go without another shift in the Best-Execution rate.  We've talked about why that is the case many times over the past four months.  If you have the flexibility to wait until Thursday morning to see how rates fared after Wednesday's Fed Announcement, that's allowable even if it's not advisable due to the limited nature of potential gains. We say that because we  do think it's possible the Fed signals a less optimistic outlook this week, which would be supportive of an improvement in Best Execution Mortgage Rates.  Either way, we view floating as risky given the uncertainty of that situation in combination with the fact that the 4.875% Best-Execution rate which we know will be a hard barrier to break.  So although longer term, more flexible outlooks can still float in speculation of further gains, the upside is limited enough for shorter term outlooks to favor locking. We are definitely in "wait and see" mode until then....


Posted by Stephen L. Smith on April 26th, 2011 11:55 AMPost a Comment (0)

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April 7th, 2011 1:37 PM

  • Check out the information below.  What is your opinion?  I welcome your comments.

    Stephen L. Smith, Manager

    A.C.L. Mortgage Services, L.L.C.

    steve@acl-mortgage.com

     

It appears that the Dodd-Frank Act will be upheld, until the Republicans can get a majority in the senate.  The US Court of Appeals’ stay on the final rule’s implementation has been lifted.  The good news is that the Republicans have introduced a bill to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act.  PLEASE NOTE the article below:

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.
Timothy Spangler 
Republicans Introduce Bill to Repeal the Dodd-Frank Act

"Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) introduced a bill on 04/01/2011, The Financial Takeover Repeal Act of 2011 (S. 712), which would repeal the Dodd-Frank Act.  The legislation currently has eighteen Republican co-sponsors.  Critics argue that the bill has little chance of actually passing, as the Democrats still maintain control of the Senate. However, the bill does have important symbolic meaning by demonstrating how significant the Republican opposition to the controversial law remains."

This is important legislation that we need to get behind.  The Dodd-Frank Act is portrayed as a "consumer protection" bill; however, it has brought about more expense and controversy than could ever benefit anyone.  PLEASE stay informed on the progress of these two bills, and keep your customers aware of the benefits/disadvantages of each.


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March 9th, 2011 5:01 PM

Carla Cross

Carla Cross, CRB, MA, is an international speaker, writer, and coach, specializing in real estate management. A National Realtor Educator of the Year, Carla was recently named one of the 50 most influential women in real estate. Join her newsletter community, and receive Carla’s new eBook, Getting to Yes: Ten Tools to Remove Barriers to a Decision. Click here. Contact Carla at 425-392-6914 or http://www.carlacross.com.

Turnabout’s Fair Play
Written by Carla Cross   

10 Commandments for Agents

Carla Cross, CRB, MA - January 28, 2011 - Managers study how to attract and keep agents. They learn how to do recruiting presentations that they hope are mesmerizing to their candidates—so mesmerizing that they’ll say yes when offered a position in the company. They don’t rest on their laurels; they hone their skills so they’re better managers, trainers, and coaches. So, I’m going to turn the tables, and ask you agents, what do you owe your manager? My eighth grade teacher, Mrs. Taylor, had wonderful sayings that she would drop on us at opportune times. These either kept us attentive or scared the you-know-what out of us! They included, “Time passes. Will you?” and “to each his own, as she kissed the cow.” (Well, some were better than others). The saying I’m remembering now, though, was, “Turnabout’s fair play”. In other words, if you mess with Mrs. Taylor, you will get the appropriate treatment! And, if you cooperate and get your work done, you’ll get appropriate treatment, too. So, let’s apply that idea to the relationship and expectations of agents and managers.

Are Mutual Expectations Exchanged in the Interview?
The real estate industry is the only industry I know that hires with a “trust me” from both the manager and the agent. No mutual expectations here, just promises! It may have worked in the past, but it won’t work in the future. A challenging market means we’ll have to do things differently. Right now, managers, make a list of what you expect—and have a right to expect—from an agent. Draw up a Mutual Expectations agreement. Go over that agreement in the interview. Get it signed. Doing it after 2 you’ve hired the agent is way too late! (There is an example new mutual expectations agreement in the 3rd edition of Up and Running in 30 Days, the new agent’s business start-up plan).

Consequences of the Mutual Expectations Agreement
Managers:
Are you worried about retention? This is one of the best retention tools in the world—hiring agents who promise to go to work! Your experienced agents will love the fact that you’re not hiring deadwood to just get in their way and pull down the reputation of the company. Your new agents will get right to work, because they understand that is the expectation. Will you miss hiring a few people? Sure--the ones that didn’t intend to go to work.

Ten Commandments to Get the Best from your Manager
From working as an agent for 8 years, and managing agents for almost two decades, I’ve drawn some conclusions about the ‘turnabout’s fair play’ that I believe agents owe managers. I’ve also listed these in the new Up and Running, because, I believe if managers are willing to give 100% support through training and coaching each agent to success, agents need to give it their best, too. Here are agents’ ten commandments:

  1. Do the work.
  2. Don’t argue.
  3. Don’t make excuses form not doing your start-up plan.
  4. Don’t tell the manager you’ve been in the business two weeks and you have a better way.
  5. Do thank your manager frequently.
  6. Do tell other agents that you appreciate your manager’s efforts.
  7. Do tell other new agents you meet in other companies that you have a great manager.
  8. Don’t bug other people in the office to find another answer because you didn’t like your manager’s answer.
  9. Don’t change the Up and Running plan because you “don’t like it”. (You just don’t like lead generating, do you?)
  10. Don’t miss a coaching appointment!

I’d love to hear what you think of my ‘ten commandments.’ Are there others you think are important?

Managers: Why not make your own ten commandments and discuss them in your interview process.  Then, turn the tables and ask the agent about his expectations of you and the office.

Agents: Before you hire on, get in writing exactly what your manager is going to do to assure your success, so you won’t have disappointments later.  Getting agreement on what we both expect before we decide to work together is key to a happy partnership.  The only surprises I want you and your agent to have after you start working together are good ones!


Posted by Stephen L. Smith on March 9th, 2011 5:01 PMPost a Comment (0)

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February 24th, 2011 10:43 AM
Published February 22, 2011  
Real Estate by AnnaMaria Andriotis (Author Archive)

The New Costs of Renting

Freaked by the housing market , more would-be home buyers are opting for rentals – driving rents up along the way. But it's not just rising rents that new renters have to worry about. A handful of new costs could make renting less than the bargain it appears.

The average national vacancy rate for rentals fell 17% last year to 6.6%, according to Reis, Inc., which tracks rental performance data. And as renting has gotten more popular, prices have jumped. The average monthly rent, including studios, one- and two-bedroom apartments is now $986, based on Reis data. Before the recession, the average was just $930. And in some markets, it's far worse: In New York, rents are up 9% on average in the last five years; in San Jose, they're up 8%.

The market is only likely to get tighter. For the first time in memory, the federal government is actively encouraging people to rent, rather than buy. The Obama administration's recent housing proposal calls for a larger rental market and limits home ownership . Not that renting needed the endorsement: It's already attractive to anyone hesitant to commit to a home in an uncertain job market, those who can't qualify for a mortgage, and people waiting for a more stable housing market before buying. And some people just don't have a choice. Skyrocketing foreclosures have left thousands of former homeowners with no option but to rent, says Frank Nitschke, principal at Prudential Real Estate Investors Research. And with another five million homes expected to go into foreclosure over the next two years, according to RealtyTrac.com, that means more renters will soon enter the market and could drive rentals up even more.

The rise in demand almost certainly means higher rents, which are projected to rise by 3.4% by the end of the year, according to Reis, and fewer of the perks that became popular during the recession, like two or three months' free rent for anyone willing to sign a one-year lease. While shopping around, new renters should look for landlords who are still willing to provide free months of rent – a trend that has been declining during the past year, but is still more widely available than it was pre recession, says Ryan Severino, a senior economist at Reis. Existing renters might save money by renewing their lease sooner than later when rents are likely to be even higher, he says. Before signing a contract, look for wording that promises not to raise rents during the lease period. By end of year, rents could rise even further should inflation pick up.

But there are other costs, too, that can take a bigger bite than many renters expect: Insurance, storage fees and, in cities where housing costs have plummeted, opportunity costs. Suddenly, home-ownership doesn't quite sound so bad.

Storage costs

For former homeowners, renting often means living in a smaller space – which means taking the 8-foot dining room table or the piano to storage. At Public Storage, among the largest U.S. storage companies, the popular 100-square foot unit – about half the size of a one-car garage -- can cost up to $270 per month, depending on location. (The average price is around $150.) There's also a one-time fee of around $20 to sign up. The company's U.S. same-store revenues were up modestly in the third quarter compared to a year ago, and "there's no doubt, foreclosures have helped the industry," says Clemente Teng, the company's vice president of investor relations. To lock in the most affordable rental, look online: Companies often offer lower prices online than they will over the phone. And since prices can vary by location, check out the options a town or two over. Consumers shopping for a space now might want to consider locking in the price – when home sales and moves pick up in the summer, storage prices tend to rise.

Insurance fees

There's no reliable data, but anecdotal evidence suggests that more landlords are requiring tenants to sign up for renter's insurance, says Loretta Worters, a vice president at the Insurance Information Institute. They're concerned about getting sued if someone gets hurt on their property, and while the extra cost may seem unnecessary at first, it makes sense: A typical policy covers a tenant's possessions and pays for hotel stays and additional living expenses in the event a rental is destroyed or seriously damaged. Premiums usually range between $100 and $300 per year, according to State Farm, and vary based on location and amount of coverage. Some renters may want additional coverage, because most policies place a limit of up to $2,500 – total –on jewelry, fur, silverware, gold, art and rugs, whether they're destroyed or stolen. A supplemental policy, called a floater, costs on average $7.50 per $1,000 worth of jewelry, says Scott Simmonds, a Saco, Maine-based insurance consultant.

Missed opportunity

In some cities, the housing market has fallen so far, and the rental market has gotten so tight, that rent could cost significantly more than a mortgage on a comparable place. In Miami's Dade County, for example, a two-bedroom apartment costs $1,206 on average in rent; monthly mortgage and property tax payments on the same property, based at the median list price of $209,000, would cost $774, according to Movoto.com, which tracks sales and rental prices. Over five years, that's a savings of almost $26,000 – not even including the tax break for mortgage interest. In Fairfax County, Va., the markets, and savings, could be similar. To determine whether owning is cheaper than renting in a specific neighborhood pull up equivalent for-sale listings online or speak with a realtor and use a rent-or-buy calculator to compare the monthly cost of renting and owning. And if the monthly savings are significant, there are other compelling reasons to buy, says John Mulville, a senior vice president at Real Estate Economics, which tracks residential real estate data: prices are low, as are mortgage rates.


Posted by Stephen L. Smith on February 24th, 2011 10:43 AMPost a Comment (0)

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